I spend much of my time each day reading newspapers and talking to friends about politics, but rarely do I post on the subject. There are some "excellent sources(daily kos is my daily fix)":http://www.dailykos.com/ that focus on politics and the race for the White house. So, the last thing this country needs is another "blogger for Dean(duh)":http://www.blogforamerica.com/whatisablog.html. However, today is the "Iowa caucus ":http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/23293430.html-- a "bizarre exercise(don't get me started...)":http://slate.msn.com/id/2094034/ that makes the Electoral College look downright democratic-- so I thought I'd take a few minutes to give my take. First, the headlines seem to point to Dean "dropping off(We'll see)":http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A63920-2004Jan7.html dramatically in the past weeks. I can't deny this, by the "Zogby(do they not call younger voters?)":http://www.zogby.com polls are always a bit "dubious(organization is what counts)":http://slate.msn.com/id/2094069/. I think Dean will "prevail(Investors agree)":http://nytimes.com/2004/01/18/politics/campaigns/18POIN.html. So, here's my predictions: # *Dean* - Strong organization will drive turnout, but will beat Gep by only a few points. He will break 30%. # *Gephardt* - A disappointing second, will mark the beginning of the end of his campaign. He should get close to 30% if the unions are out in force. # *Kerry* - Looks good in latest polls, but doesn't have the ground operation of the first two. I think he'll beat Edwards because he's spent the most time in Iowa, but cold weather could keep his senior base from coming out. Kerry will break 20%. # *Edwards* - This guy is the real "anti-Dean", and I think his positive message and southern drawl can help him continue on after New Hampshire. Though he'll finish 4th, I think he's positioned better than Kerry moving forward. Is General Clark the wild card? He doesn't figure in Iowa, but he's working all alone in New Hapshire...